ConstructiveMacro
Monday plan: hold the AI leaders and demand broader confirmation
Keep the four-position book unchanged for Monday. Friday strengthened the MSFT and AMZN cases, while positive medium-term momentum keeps NVDA and META investable despite their weaker session. The open must show that participation is broadening beyond software and cloud.
AI and compute spending continue to shape equity leadership and earnings expectationsRate-path uncertainty remains a constraint on long-duration growth valuationsGeopolitical stress around energy supply could revive inflation pressure
Read dispatchMarkdown + portfolio snapshot
Backed by research: see the backtested EURUSD, Gold, and S&P 500 studies →
Portfolio · top 4 of 4Full book
Recent entries
11Oct 2026WeeklyCautiousThe S&P 500 gained 1.15% and the Dow added 0.93%, while the Nasdaq-100 rose only 0.24% and small caps fellThe 10-year Treasury yield briefly reached its highest level since 2002 before ending the week at 5.24%AI revenue concerns hit technology shares as oil and the unresolved Strait of Hormuz dispute kept inflation risk elevatedWeek in Review: Records Survive an AI Credibility Shock and 5% YieldsThe S&P 500 and Dow gained as record highs survived another week of 5% Treasury yields, but the Nasdaq-100 finished only modestly higher and small caps fell. A sharp AI selloff, expensive oil, and unresolved inflation pressure kept the regime selective even after Friday stabilized the major indexes.Portfolio changeWeekly recap9Oct 2026MacroCautiousAI-linked shares face a credibility test after Thursday's revenue-driven selloffRate uncertainty remains a constraint on growth valuations despite Thursday's Treasury reliefOil supply friction and tariff-linked inflation keep pressure on the inflation outlookFriday plan: hold the AI leaders and demand stabilization at the openKeep the existing four-stock growth book unchanged for Friday. Thursday's AI selloff hurt relative performance, but MSFT, NVDA, and META retain positive medium-term momentum, while the available evidence doesn't show an earnings or capital-spending break.Portfolio changeNo position changes8Oct 2026MacroConstructiveAI and compute spending continue to support semiconductor, cloud, and software earnings expectations.Technology retains stronger medium-term momentum than the broad market and economically sensitive groups.Rate pressure and geopolitical stress remain the main threats to concentrated growth exposure.Thursday plan: keep the concentrated AI growth book intactHold MSFT, AMZN, NVDA, and META at current weights for Thursday. AI spending and technology momentum still support the book, but META's Wednesday weakness and persistent rate pressure require confirmation before adding risk.Portfolio changeNo position changes7Oct 2026MacroConstructiveAI and compute spending continue to support the market's strongest earnings-backed growth companiesRate uncertainty is pressuring long-duration bonds and limiting participation outside large-cap technologyEnergy supply friction and high fuel costs remain risks to inflation expectations and consumer spendingWednesday plan: keep the concentrated AI growth book intactWednesday's plan keeps MSFT, NVDA, META, and AMZN at their current weights. Tuesday confirmed the earnings-backed growth thesis, although the book lagged SPY by 0.11 percentage points. The open needs to show continued leadership from software and semiconductors, follow-through in AMZN, and no broader deterioration behind META's weakness.Portfolio changeNo position changes6Oct 2026MacroConstructiveAI and compute spending continue to shape equity leadership and earnings expectations.Technology momentum remains stronger than the broad market, financials, and small caps.Supply constraints and rising yields could test the pace and profitability of AI infrastructure investment.Tuesday plan: stay concentrated in proven AI growth leadersTuesday plan: keep MSFT, NVDA, and META at full size while retaining a smaller AMZN position. Monday confirmed the book's leadership, but weak financials, small caps, and long-duration bonds still argue against broadening risk.Portfolio changeNo position changes5Oct 2026MacroConstructiveFriday's live book gained 0.93% versus SPY at 0.74%, with every holding advancing.QQQ, MSFT, NVDA, and META retain positive 20-day and 60-day momentum, keeping leadership concentrated in technology and AI.Weak long-duration bonds, financials, and small caps show that the broader market signal remains less convincing than the growth leaders.Monday plan: keep the concentrated AI growth book after Friday's confirmationMonday's plan keeps MSFT, AMZN, NVDA, and META at their current weights. Friday's 0.93% portfolio gain beat SPY's 0.74%, while technology leadership and company-level momentum still favor proven AI earnings power over weaker financials, small caps, duration, or defensive assets.Portfolio changeNo position changes4Oct 2026WeeklyConstructiveSeptember payroll growth slowed to 29,000, cutting expectations for another Fed increase in OctoberLong-term Treasury yields reached multi-decade highs as firm activity, sticky prices, and heavy government borrowing kept rate pressure elevatedOil volatility around the Strait of Hormuz kept energy-driven inflation risk tied to every move in bonds and equitiesWeek in Review: Weak Jobs Relief Meets an Oil and Yield WallA soft September payroll report cut the odds of another near-term Fed increase and sparked a Friday rally, but it did not erase the week's pressure from oil or long-term yields. The S&P 500 and Dow finished lower while the Nasdaq-100 gained, leaving the market in a selective growth regime rather than a broad advance.Portfolio changeWeekly recap2Oct 2026MacroConstructiveAI infrastructure and software spending continue to connect secular growth with current earnings power.Friday's jobs report could reset rate expectations and the market's tolerance for growth valuations.Oil's geopolitical surge raises the risk of renewed inflation pressure even as Treasury yields eased Thursday.Friday plan: keep the growth book concentrated in proven AI earnings powerFriday plan: hold all four positions at current weights. NVDA, MSFT, and META retain the strongest evidence, while AMZN remains the smaller watch position until its relative trend improves. Friday's open must confirm that growth leadership can absorb the jobs report and renewed energy-driven inflation risk.Portfolio changeNo position changes1Oct 2026MacroConstructiveAI and compute spending are still shaping equity leadershipRates and inflation expectations are still steering cross-asset risk appetiteWeak financial and small-cap performance is challenging the breadth of the advanceThursday plan: hold the growth book while testing whether AI leadership canwithstand weak breadthCarry MSFT, AMZN, NVDA, and META at current weights. Wednesday's book held flat against a 0.21% SPY decline, but META's pullback and persistent weakness in financials, small caps, and duration keep the regime selective.Portfolio changeNo position changes30Sep 2026MacroConstructiveRates and inflation expectations are still steering cross-asset risk appetiteAI and compute spending are still shaping equity leadershipFinancials remain a read-through on liquidity, credit, and policyWednesday plan: add to META after confirmation and trim the weaker AMZN signalTuesday confirmed META's relative leadership while AMZN's weak medium-term signal persisted. The Wednesday book will move four percentage points from AMZN to META, keep MSFT and NVDA unchanged, and remain fully invested in high-quality AI growth.Portfolio change1 add • 1 trim
Browse the complete dated journal archive